Isn't it funny how everyone said the Russians were going to be in Kharkiv City by June? Or how before that, the Ukrainians were going to be at the Azov Sea by September? Or before that, how the Russians were going to take Kyiv in 3 days?
Disappointing offensives have become the norm.
It doesn’t matter how many men you have, there are certain types of terrain that you can’t cross with significant forces without significant losses. Once the enemy, either Russian or Ukrainian, is prepared for you, no love of God or country is going to save that offensive. You may eventually take the position, but at great cost.
Intellectually-speaking, in warfare, if the enemy knows you’re going to attack a location, then you should change your plans and attack where the enemy is not.
But this is not Sun-Tzu. This is not 500 B.C.
The problem with the scale of modern warfare, especially once enormous frontlines and trenches are involved, is that battlefield strategy ceases to matter as much, and nations begin relying more and more on sheer numbers to achieve their war-goals. The enemy is everywhere, and the eyes of the mighty can now scour the land with drones and satellites in a way only envisaged by J.R.R. Tolkien.
It’s almost impossible to truly surprise anyone in 2024.
Russia only lost the large swaths of territory in Kherson and Kharkiv in 2022 because of their impatience and arrogance to not fortify and control the land they had captured. They were in such a hurry to go with the king-killing strategy of taking Kyiv, that they didn’t do the humble work of preparation and exerting control over territory, making sure to maintain multiple supply lines.
Logistics defeated Russia, not Ukraine.
Now, the logistics are biting into both sides. I can’t help but be reminded by WWI, and the eternal promise of a summer offensive over the course of the 4-year-conflict. The reoccurring logic is that we will lick our wounds and heal over the winter, and by summer hopefully stock up enough material for another offensive.
Sound familiar?
“Trust me, bro. It’s going to be beautiful, bro,” says the Kaiser in all of us.
In reality, though, this is a very different war for two reasons: drones and AI. This war is going to be settled by drones over the skies of Ukraine, Russia, and perhaps even Europe if it gets bad enough. It’s probably going to set precedents that the Chinese will learn from in developing their automated warmachine (which the United States already has, and probably borders on the war-criminal).
2025 will be the year of the drone.
댓글