The worm is turning again.
Positions shift. Initiative is lost and gained. People are rearranged like pieces on a board. One side is “winning” and then another. The truth is that this war is a stalemate, and yet at the very same time, absolutely unpredictable and dynamic.
Even as the Russian offensive in the northern reaches of Kharkiv Oblast has begun to run dry, reports to the east out of Kupyansk indicate bloody fighting with entire Ukrainian battalions being lost along with hundreds of Russians a day. And the Russian line is creeping up, inch by inch, pound for pound. Flesh is the currency that pays for Russian acquisition.
And Russia is certainly very rich in that regard.
The drone wars of the 21st century have begun in the sky, where new generations of drones are engaged in an aerial battle to dominate the future. Drone production and technology is one critical place where Russia still lags behind Ukraine. Russia currently uses glide-bombs launched from aircraft to strike cities and targets on the ground. The glide-bombs are very simple devices that are hard to target due to their lack of sophistication. But Ukraine is on its way to producing 1,000,000 drones this year. If even a quarter of these are successful that would theoretically equate to 250,000 Russian casualties, if not many more. Also many of the drones are multi-use and seaborne, not just suicide drones like Iranian Shaheds.
The drones also now have capabilities to fight other drones in the air.
So, even though this war seems to be a bloody stalemate, it’s anyone’s guess what’s going to happen.
Kommentare